Exelon: Another Way To Play Rising Natural Gas Prices [View article]
Yep, that's the whole point of buying it - it has been punished. It's still not doing particularly well but that should change once natural gas goes up more, during 2012 and 2013.
Yes, obviously these are all continuous realities, with many outliers depending on perfect alignment of all variables (cheap gas nearby, modern combined cycle turbines, expensive coal with transportation costs, etc). Same for the drilling. The rigs aren't at zero anyway.
As I said in this article, natural gas is reaching the first barrier, hence we will probably see increased volatility here. It shouldn't be easy to cross $2.70-$3.00. That's what I make of it. I am now out of natural gas in case it gets some kind of scare (I would buy into any scare, though).
Regarding the stock market, that's the bounce I was waiting for. Hard to say how far it will go.
Bought mostly in the last 2 days of last week. 7.60 on ACI and 11.34 on ANR. You can follow the articles, I didn't get positive on coal except very recently (I was calling for a panic before, check my other article from Friday). I also trade around the positions a lot.
When the first switch happened, natural gas prices were as high as $3.50-$3.75, however, there are two sides to that coin - the other side is the coal prices, and those went down - that's why I believe the prices for switchback are lower now.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The thesis is not really based on exports, though those could help.
The bottom might yet fail, not only because the summer might be mild, but also because coal+nat gas might still be excessive, but there's also a chance for it to work given the market bounce which is already happening and which was part of the reason for me to be positive at this point.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Well, it might be nice (3P) but it was there all along, so clinging to it now is somewhat strange and represents a changing thesis. A changing thesis on a very expensive stock. Not a good combination.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
The market is believing that a good deal of those expenses are, indeed, tied to investment - or are optional in that AMZN can do away with them and still have a business.
However, the market has already shown that the thesis keeps changing, for instance the latest thesis is that 3P is the thing, it's where all the money is coming from, etc. Not just any 3P, but the 3P that AMZN does not fulfill (see the Credit Suisse research).
Now, this is funny, because the former theory was that AMZN was having trouble with the earnings because of heavy investments in fulfillment, and the new theory is that AMZN is the sheet because of something that doesn't even require fulfillment.
In the end what we'll see is that AMZN is a giant mail order house with no cost advantage over regular retailers, getting revenues by competing on price and seeing its only advantage going away - not collecting sales taxes.
There's a reason why large generic mail order catalogs went under...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Jeremy, the problem isn't quite the fact that you're capitalizing it, as much as you then treating its absence (since it was capitalized) as cash flow. You're basically saying that those expenses don't really exist:
"Gross income at Amazon, based on analyst estimates for 2012 EBITDA and the impact of capitalized expense add-backs is $7.5 billion."
Exelon: Another Way To Play Rising Natural Gas Prices [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
Regarding the stock market, that's the bounce I was waiting for. Hard to say how far it will go.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The bottom might yet fail, not only because the summer might be mild, but also because coal+nat gas might still be excessive, but there's also a chance for it to work given the market bounce which is already happening and which was part of the reason for me to be positive at this point.
Verizon Threw Apple A Curveball [View article]
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
However, the market has already shown that the thesis keeps changing, for instance the latest thesis is that 3P is the thing, it's where all the money is coming from, etc. Not just any 3P, but the 3P that AMZN does not fulfill (see the Credit Suisse research).
Now, this is funny, because the former theory was that AMZN was having trouble with the earnings because of heavy investments in fulfillment, and the new theory is that AMZN is the sheet because of something that doesn't even require fulfillment.
In the end what we'll see is that AMZN is a giant mail order house with no cost advantage over regular retailers, getting revenues by competing on price and seeing its only advantage going away - not collecting sales taxes.
There's a reason why large generic mail order catalogs went under...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
There's a long distance from doing that, to ending up capitalizing expenses that we know fully well are expenses ...
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Indeed, the only thing this reminds me is the Worldcom fraud.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
"Gross income at Amazon, based on analyst estimates for 2012 EBITDA and the impact of capitalized expense add-backs is $7.5 billion."