Japanese Traders Show No Sympathy for Sony (SNE) [View article]
John, I can't say I'm a "big believer" but I am no "big doubter" either.
Sony has lucked out in the timing of its restructuring as domestic interest rates are still low, the "weak" yen (until recently) so far has provided nice FOREX conversion profits and at least as a bright spot for its Game segment, Microsoft has once again failed to penetrate the Japanese gaming market.
You mentioned the iPod and that's what's truly missing with Sony. Something Sony can use to captivate consumers of all demographics and really rally behind while taking in high margins.
I do like the direction Sony is going with its LCD JV with Samsung -- cooperating with a competitor to the benefit of both parties. In fact, Korean manufacturers are feeling the currency appreciation pinch ahead of the Japanese as the Won has really taken off this year.
Yet, back to Sony, I still see it being too bloated and lacking the focus that's going to produce a "killer next-gen CE" product, at least for the time being. A flop by Nintendo's forthcoming Wii and the eventual launch of Microsoft's Vista represent opportunities for Sony's PlayStation and Vaio brands. LCDs and digi-cams are becoming increasingly competitive putting pressure on profit margins and DVD hardware is a mess. No comment on its other businesses.
Koizumi Begins 5th Year in Office, Market Concern Grows Over Post-Koizumi (EWJ) [View article]
Thanks Enzio -- I see Mr. Abe as the favorite too. I am wondering if this time around (3rd time) the public is enough informed and understanding of the dire need to increase the consumption tax. I think as long as the increase is a matter of a few percentage points or is implemented piecemeal, that the economy can absorb it and not get "whacked." However, I've heard some proposed rates as high as 16%, which would definitely be a disaster.
Roping in the BoJ's upcoming rate hikes and as you always point out: the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet don't want to see the BoJ raise rates (too soon or too high) due to the debt factor. We can really see how serious a test the economy must face post-Koizumi with questions surrounding BoJ rate hikes & debt repayment obligations, consumption tax hike burden on citizens & higher borrowing costs (mortgage, auto, etc), and of course BoJ rate hike & impact on yen and domestic securities.
An Interview with Jay Buster on "Protected Stocks" and Potential Nikkei 225 Plays vs. ETFs and CEFs [View article]
CC, see the comment by Jay (himself) above the one you left. He is has discontinued the blog. Hopefully the interview content that's on Seeking Alpha is helpful to you.
DoCoMo Still Reigns King in Japan, But Faces Stiff Competition (DCM, VOD) [View article]
Thanks for your comment Andrew. I agree that the VOD chart may be a little deceptive and going forward will make a note in case there's any confusion (hopefully there isn't).
ORIX Jumps into Chinese Real Estate Market (IX) [View article]
In Wednesday trading in Tokyo, Merrill Lynch Japan raised its price target on ORIX to 38,000 yen. ORIX closed up 1.45% at 34,950 yen, setting a new all-time high.
Not Too Late to Invest in Japan (EWJ) [View article]
First, you'll have to find out what JOF's holdings are. You may have access to its most recent holdings if you are a shareholder from its website or you can try Morningstar.com. From Morningstar.com I found JOF's portfolio as of 11/30/05, at which time Sanyo Special Steel was its largest holding. In order to find details of this particular stock you can use Bloomberg.com. Click "Find Symbol" on the upper-right of the page and choose JP as the "Source" and type in the company name. Bloomberg data will provide you with a P/E and other financials (click here).
The information is out there but it may not always be easy to access. Closed-end funds may lack transparency in terms of their holdings. And those involved in smaller-cap stocks will seemingly have higher turnover. I am down on Japanese small caps at current valuations and at the current stage of the Japanese economy's recovery. Small caps have had a nice run but I tend to like mid and larger caps going forward.
UPDATE [1] Nomura Enters Hot Japanese Online Brokerage Arena (NMR) [View article]
Simon, thanks for pointing that out. Home Trade did hit 1m accts in '02 and currently is approaching 2m. I misunderstood it for the forthcoming "Joinvest" (spelled differently than above "Joy Invest") project. The most recent news concerning Home Trade would be it launching margin accounts and trading. Last I heard Joinvest is expected to begin operations this April and will serve as a more flexible and powerful on-line brokerage option targeted at all types of investors. I will update this post to correct the erroneous information.
There were three more pieces of DoCoMo news out this week including the share repurchase update announced today. On Thursday DoCoMo announced it achieved the world's first 2.5Gbps packet transmission in a 4G field experiment. And on Wednesday DCM said it was postponing the launch date for its NM850iG Handset (the one apparently made by Nokia) because it was still confirming its quality.
Toyota Shares Hit New All Time High; Share Buy-back Begins Tomorrow [View article]
Quick update on TM's share buy back: 11.575 million shares repurchased on 2/15 at Y6,210 per share for aggregate purchase price of Y71.88 billion (~$611.4 million at current FOREX rate). Per last year's shareholder meeting TM can still repurchase another 50+ million shares for a total of 65 million.
What Do Japan Stocks and the Pittsburgh Steelers Have in Common? (EWJ, ITF, VPL) [View article]
Upside, downside, everything is supposedly already priced in; at least until the next trading session starts and new information or reasons to seek economic gain appear. There's no sense arguing about peak market levels and the gaps that exists between current levels. These comparisons are simply used to show the degree of rise and fall and vice versa. Nobody expects the N225 to hit 38,000 overnight. You sound pretty much like one of the naysayers Christy was referring to. There's nothing wrong with that. I tend to take an optimistic stance based on the improving economic fundamentals and overall sentiment and what I believe to be is a sustainable economic recovery.
Greenspan Comments on Japan's Economy (EWJ, ITF, VPL) [View article]
Thanks for your analysis Enzio -- I appreciate your insightful comments. I had never thought of Japan in terms of it "exporting its imports" but you are right in that in order to export Japan must import raw materials first. Excellent point that if the yen appreciates Japan's import costs fall but at the same time its exports become less price competitive. Most readers should recognize the latter but of equal importance for Japan is the rate at which the Chinese RMB appreciates.
I won't argue against your main point that "many of us over-emphasize the role of FOREX rates and economic growth." However, for individual companies and especially for large scale exporters such as the companies I referenced that derive a large majority of their sales and profits overseas, FOREX is in fact a huge issue.
Canon Reports Q4 Earnings -- Net Income Up 34% Sets New Record (CAJ) [View article]
For instance, I have no idea where S&P (see this link and pasted text below) is getting its Q4 2005 (period ended December) EPS numbers.
<blockquote><... (CAJ) : Ups to 5 STARS (strong buy) from 3 STARS (hold) Analyst: Megan Graham-Hackett
December quarter EPS of US$1.08 vs 81 cents is above our $1.07 estimate, driven by new models of digital still cameras and inkjet printers released right before holiday season. We expect Canon to continue to leverage its market position in digital still cameras, copiers and printers, and to override price pressure through proactive cost reductions and product mix. We are raising our 2006 earning per American Depositary Shares estimate to $4.41 from $3.78, and see $5.07 for 2007, on improved margin. Our 12-month target price rises to $80 from $63.</blockquote>...
Canon Reports Q4 Earnings -- Net Income Up 34% Sets New Record (CAJ) [View article]
Tom, use this link (click here) to find CAJ's annual EPS (basic and diluted in yen and dollars). I subtracted the full year EPS from the YTD EPS (data from MSN Money) to arrive at quarterly EPS. Canon did not report quarterly EPS in its materials. I have seen different quarterly EPS numbers reported at different web sites and assume the discrepancies are based on the currency conversion rate used. Also some sites are still showing the EPS (TTM) as of Q3, not Q4. By the way, the number of shares outstanding are 888,742,779.
Brokerage Nomura's Low Trading Volume Should Ramp Up Soon (NMR) [View article]
So far Japanese brokerages are reporting huge Q3 profits with Daiwa's quadrupling and Matsui's more than doubling. A Reuters article noted that "retail trades now account for 40 percent of transactions at Japan's major stock exchanges, up from 30 percent a year ago, and eight in 10 of those trades are made online." I hope Nomura is ready for the launch of its on-line brokerage this April. It seems to be doing quite well in IPO underwriting. Nomura will report earnings Jan. 30th.
Japanese Traders Show No Sympathy for Sony (SNE) [View article]
Sony has lucked out in the timing of its restructuring as domestic interest rates are still low, the "weak" yen (until recently) so far has provided nice FOREX conversion profits and at least as a bright spot for its Game segment, Microsoft has once again failed to penetrate the Japanese gaming market.
You mentioned the iPod and that's what's truly missing with Sony. Something Sony can use to captivate consumers of all demographics and really rally behind while taking in high margins.
I do like the direction Sony is going with its LCD JV with Samsung -- cooperating with a competitor to the benefit of both parties. In fact, Korean manufacturers are feeling the currency appreciation pinch ahead of the Japanese as the Won has really taken off this year.
Yet, back to Sony, I still see it being too bloated and lacking the focus that's going to produce a "killer next-gen CE" product, at least for the time being. A flop by Nintendo's forthcoming Wii and the eventual launch of Microsoft's Vista represent opportunities for Sony's PlayStation and Vaio brands. LCDs and digi-cams are becoming increasingly competitive putting pressure on profit margins and DVD hardware is a mess. No comment on its other businesses.
Koizumi Begins 5th Year in Office, Market Concern Grows Over Post-Koizumi (EWJ) [View article]
Roping in the BoJ's upcoming rate hikes and as you always point out: the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet don't want to see the BoJ raise rates (too soon or too high) due to the debt factor. We can really see how serious a test the economy must face post-Koizumi with questions surrounding BoJ rate hikes & debt repayment obligations, consumption tax hike burden on citizens & higher borrowing costs (mortgage, auto, etc), and of course BoJ rate hike & impact on yen and domestic securities.
An Interview with Jay Buster on "Protected Stocks" and Potential Nikkei 225 Plays vs. ETFs and CEFs [View article]
DoCoMo Still Reigns King in Japan, But Faces Stiff Competition (DCM, VOD) [View article]
ORIX Jumps into Chinese Real Estate Market (IX) [View article]
Not Too Late to Invest in Japan (EWJ) [View article]
The information is out there but it may not always be easy to access. Closed-end funds may lack transparency in terms of their holdings. And those involved in smaller-cap stocks will seemingly have higher turnover. I am down on Japanese small caps at current valuations and at the current stage of the Japanese economy's recovery. Small caps have had a nice run but I tend to like mid and larger caps going forward.
UPDATE [1] Nomura Enters Hot Japanese Online Brokerage Arena (NMR) [View article]
ORIX -- Overlooked ADR that Among Other Things Has Stakes in JP Real Estate (IX) [View article]
NTT DoCoMo's Slew of News (DCM) [View article]
Toyota Shares Hit New All Time High; Share Buy-back Begins Tomorrow [View article]
What Do Japan Stocks and the Pittsburgh Steelers Have in Common? (EWJ, ITF, VPL) [View article]
Greenspan Comments on Japan's Economy (EWJ, ITF, VPL) [View article]
I won't argue against your main point that "many of us over-emphasize the role of FOREX rates and economic growth." However, for individual companies and especially for large scale exporters such as the companies I referenced that derive a large majority of their sales and profits overseas, FOREX is in fact a huge issue.
Canon Reports Q4 Earnings -- Net Income Up 34% Sets New Record (CAJ) [View article]
<blockquote><... (CAJ) : Ups to 5 STARS (strong buy) from 3 STARS (hold)
Analyst: Megan Graham-Hackett
December quarter EPS of US$1.08 vs 81 cents is above our $1.07 estimate, driven by new models of digital still cameras and inkjet printers released right before holiday season. We expect Canon to continue to leverage its market position in digital still cameras, copiers and printers, and to override price pressure through proactive cost reductions and product mix. We are raising our 2006 earning per American Depositary Shares estimate to $4.41 from $3.78, and see $5.07 for 2007, on improved margin. Our 12-month target price rises to $80 from $63.</blockquote>...
Canon Reports Q4 Earnings -- Net Income Up 34% Sets New Record (CAJ) [View article]
Brokerage Nomura's Low Trading Volume Should Ramp Up Soon (NMR) [View article]