Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Always a pleasure to have you chime in, LVI. The Barron's piece was quite lite/general as you said. A shame they didn't reach out to value investors like us. Anyway, looking forward to next communication/interact... Back to foxhole.
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Thanks for your comments, TurtleGrowth. Lots of positives despite underwhelming FQ3 results. You nailed it, "Some of us see the opportunity and other's don't." Don't mind all the Nintendo at all. Return to profitability will meen ratcheting up of dividend. Meantime I may make an overture re buybacks. Feeling more up to it than before although I certainly respect management as they have much, much more than any of us outside investors riding on their decisions. So, in the end, TSR could be three-pronged and all three could be very meaningful.
I tend to agree, more could be done w/ Mario and co. Beside Disney, Nintendo need only look at Sanrio (JP: 8136) i.e. Hello Kitty, which trades at 34x trailing earnings and 10x book! Still, thankful for current valuation of Nintendo.
Absolutely, LVI. Our thoughts will mostly be likely preaching to the choir. Know that many Japanese investors use technical analysts and follow momentum. In those regards, Nintendo looks like mangy dog with fleas. However, some more patience will prove rewarding as it has in the past with Nintendo, hopefully this time too via buybacks, and in total return as dividends will rise proportionately with profits per its payout policy. Back into the foxhole for time being.
Thanks for reading and for your comment, mnementh. I am not going to try and call where Nintendo will be trading at any point in the future, but its valuation is compelling enough to suggest as I commented above that moderate yen easing combined with a cyclical upturn ought to prove very lucrative to the company and its shareholders.
Thanks for your comments, GOCUSE. The cash/market cap analysis with Nintendo is absurd the more you think about it. Even some moderate easing of the yen coinciding with an upturn in sales by way of 3DS hard/software and the forthcoming Wii U launch will show that Nintendo's priced as if it were a third-rate OEM manufacturer of seen-on-TV product made with 1950s-era machinery!
Gotcha, re. Mitsubishi - Heiwa. I like your thinking of J-REITS > one off picks for now and switching to picks like Heiwa when the CRE mkt improves. Hopefully Mitsubishi doesn't make an offer for Heiwa meantime, which it probably should given how beat down the stock is these days and historically speaking. Clemens, glad we're able to connect and look forward to future exchanges.
Scholl-san, many thanks for your comment. And hope that you enjoy Gamescom this week.Good point re Heiwa RE: seems there's still a relatively long way before the TSE/OSE merger would be officially completed, and as you know, M&A in Japan tends not to mean big changes to headcount, etc., perhaps awkwardly justifying/explaining the muted move in its stock price (while duly noting it's around a 52-wk low, actually near all-time low, already). Heck, maybe Heiwa RE finds itself in play! Have you done any research on it before?
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Yes, stronger yen results in higher yield for ADR holders based on conversion ceteris paribus. However, over time, the best case scenario for Nintendo is a weaker yen, which will make its business substantially more profitable, allowing it to hike its dividend commensurately, all of which will more than offset the dividend forex conversion to dollars.
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Thank you for your comment. Yes, perhaps, a bit earlier to be long Nintendo ahead of Wii U launch, but the valuation is too compelling. I'd welcome an even lower stock price to buy more. We shall see. 3DS disappointing thus far, but I don't think it's the end of the world by any means. Skepticism and concern ahead of original Wii launch mirrors the present and probably the same over next year. Note that my piece does not recommend Nintendo based on Wii U, but rather, based on solid intrinsic value, current valuation, and in light of cyclicality, ahead of Wii U.
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Thanks for your comment. Maybe better if you build a position as opposed to go all-in. Although I'm long, I'd love opportunities to buy more, cheaper. Have to appreciate "Mr. Market." I have a sense I may be a bit early on this, as I've said above, but the stock has been pushed so low that was compelled to buy ahead of possible one-year lead time til Wii U launch. Brace yourself for skeptics, uninformed opinions, etc.
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Indeed, Lonely Value Investor! Thanks for leaving a comment. By luck, who knows, my buy order did not execute at the time I had posted the article and it turns out in fact that my "pump"(???), in which Nintendo actually traded lower (!!!), allowed me to get in at an even better price, at around $22.65. I tend to just ignore such ignorant comments on SA. Also, my past experiences of placing trades on Pink Sheets were similar this time around. A bit hard to execute order, especially a full one at first crack; goes without saying any Pink Sheet trade should be a limit order.
Anyway, as I said, and as you well know, Nintendo's stock may trade lower somewhat more, before, over time, it very likely moves meaningfully higher. I'm looking to add to to my position opportunistically. Some of the downgrades in recent weeks were highly typical. I saw a Morgan Japan one that very belatedly halved the price target to ¥200,000 from ¥400,000 vs most recent ¥150,000-level. Most of those guys showed up late to make their upgrades a couple years ago. Expect the same again.
Outlook for Japanese Stocks: A Rising Sun [View article]
Not quite feeling your optimism, and I still think the broader and deeper negatives far outweigh any incremental positives such as 7 Eleven opening up in Indonesia. And you should really take note that your figures for the DoCoMo - Oakmark deal and the size of Topix-1 are way off the mark: the former was a deal for Y31B or about $310M, not Y31T/$31B! The Topix-1 is definitely not $170B! At Y170T, it's more like $1.7T!
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
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Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Nintendo: Dirt Cheap Ahead of Next Growth Cycle [View article]
Anyway, as I said, and as you well know, Nintendo's stock may trade lower somewhat more, before, over time, it very likely moves meaningfully higher. I'm looking to add to to my position opportunistically. Some of the downgrades in recent weeks were highly typical. I saw a Morgan Japan one that very belatedly halved the price target to ¥200,000 from ¥400,000 vs most recent ¥150,000-level. Most of those guys showed up late to make their upgrades a couple years ago. Expect the same again.
Outlook for Japanese Stocks: A Rising Sun [View article]