Japanese Exporters Look Poised to Profit from Weak Yen [View article]
Hi John,
Thanks for your comment and question. Toyota's ordinary shares (JP: 7203) are down about 4% ytd, compared to approx. -8% for its ADRs. The difference equals almost exactly the 4% weakening of the yen against the dollar ytd.
So why is Toyota down in its home market despite sustained growth and even surpassing GM by some measures? This is quite simply, in no particular order, due to (1) its run-up, almost doubling in the past two-years, (2) channeling of investment funds to overseas investments offering higher yields, (3) propensity to take profits quickly and frequently, (4) concern about the U.S. real estate market (inc. sub-prime) and slowing of overall U.S. economy, (5) higher gasoline prices hurting sales of higher margin autos, or at least boosting sales of lower margin autos in U.S.; weak domestic market w/ real growth only in the mini/sub-compact car (low margin) and luxury segments (high-margin, low volume), (6) uncertainty of FOMC policy, a rate hike would increase consumers' borrowing costs, (7) tough competition in BRIC economies, where Toyota has been somewhat of a late entrant, (8) high/rising commodity and materials costs mean imports and component costs are higher, possibly exacerbated by the weak yen, ....
There's a lot weighing the stock down, but it's not exactly tanking by any means. Obviously ADR holders are suffering more due to the negative forex impact.
TDK Jumps on Upgrades and New 10,000+ Yen Price Targets (TDK) [View article]
So you have clarified your reasoning behind your initial comment. I agree with your 1st point. Additionally, my stance is that I value analyst ratings because they provide information to the market and for foreign retail investors in Japanese stocks these ratings can be even more valuable because they are harder to find. So if a stock is going up/down based on an analyst rating I think it's fair that readers understand why.
I disagree with your second point. That's subjective and a matter of interpretation. I try to be as factual and neutral as possible. However, I don't want to be boring and dry. I still don't see why you think I am recommending the stock. It seems like you have a bone to pick with analyst recommendations.
Sometimes I comment on my feelings on a stock or a company's performance but generally speaking I don't take a position on any of the individual stocks I cover. As editor I don't invest (at least I haven't to date) in any of the stocks either. As for Japan-related stocks, I only invest in a mutual fund that focuses on a broad selection of Japanese stocks. I have disclosed this in the past in posts where appropriate.
In light of our back-and-forth discussion, I think readers of this blog including myself would enjoy hearing your thoughts on Japan from time to time. I look forward to reading your work again in the future.
TDK Jumps on Upgrades and New 10,000+ Yen Price Targets (TDK) [View article]
That's nonsense and unconstructive criticism. How would you have liked it to read? I didn't say anywhere in the post to "buy this now" or say "I recommend" TDK. I only stated facts. FACT: I. a stronger yen translates into higher ADR share prices, even in cases when the ordinary shares trade lower but the yen's gain on the dollar is higher percentage wise. II. I said "holders" of TDK ADRs... I didn't say "if you buy"... FACT: Credit Suisse was in fact the most "bullish" because it set the highest target share price among analyst upgrades in conjunction with an "outperform" rating upgrade from "neutral."
I respect your work and contributions. However, I strongly question the motive behind your comment.
After Tuesday Morning System Glitch, Tokyo Stock Exchange Finishes Afternoon Up Big (TDK, MTU, KUB, SNE, CAJ, NIPNY, DCM) [View article]
See this link to a Yomiuri Shimbun article providing further coverage of the snafu yesterday morning on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that delayed the start of trading until the afternoon.
Japanese Exporters Look Poised to Profit from Weak Yen [View article]
Thanks for your comment and question. Toyota's ordinary shares (JP: 7203) are down about 4% ytd, compared to approx. -8% for its ADRs. The difference equals almost exactly the 4% weakening of the yen against the dollar ytd.
So why is Toyota down in its home market despite sustained growth and even surpassing GM by some measures? This is quite simply, in no particular order, due to (1) its run-up, almost doubling in the past two-years, (2) channeling of investment funds to overseas investments offering higher yields, (3) propensity to take profits quickly and frequently, (4) concern about the U.S. real estate market (inc. sub-prime) and slowing of overall U.S. economy, (5) higher gasoline prices hurting sales of higher margin autos, or at least boosting sales of lower margin autos in U.S.; weak domestic market w/ real growth only in the mini/sub-compact car (low margin) and luxury segments (high-margin, low volume), (6) uncertainty of FOMC policy, a rate hike would increase consumers' borrowing costs, (7) tough competition in BRIC economies, where Toyota has been somewhat of a late entrant, (8) high/rising commodity and materials costs mean imports and component costs are higher, possibly exacerbated by the weak yen, ....
There's a lot weighing the stock down, but it's not exactly tanking by any means. Obviously ADR holders are suffering more due to the negative forex impact.
TDK Jumps on Upgrades and New 10,000+ Yen Price Targets (TDK) [View article]
I disagree with your second point. That's subjective and a matter of interpretation. I try to be as factual and neutral as possible. However, I don't want to be boring and dry. I still don't see why you think I am recommending the stock. It seems like you have a bone to pick with analyst recommendations.
Sometimes I comment on my feelings on a stock or a company's performance but generally speaking I don't take a position on any of the individual stocks I cover. As editor I don't invest (at least I haven't to date) in any of the stocks either. As for Japan-related stocks, I only invest in a mutual fund that focuses on a broad selection of Japanese stocks. I have disclosed this in the past in posts where appropriate.
In light of our back-and-forth discussion, I think readers of this blog including myself would enjoy hearing your thoughts on Japan from time to time. I look forward to reading your work again in the future.
TDK Jumps on Upgrades and New 10,000+ Yen Price Targets (TDK) [View article]
I respect your work and contributions. However, I strongly question the motive behind your comment.
Tokyo Stock Exchange Suffers 3rd Worst Day This Year, ADRs to Watch (SANYY, TMIC) & Many Decliners [View article]
After Tuesday Morning System Glitch, Tokyo Stock Exchange Finishes Afternoon Up Big (TDK, MTU, KUB, SNE, CAJ, NIPNY, DCM) [View article]