MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Wednesday, May 23
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4:45 PM It's got to be some sort of bottom (or top depending on point of view) when bond fund managers hit the WSJ en masse to talk about how they've cut exposure to Europe and bulked up their holdings of "safe" Treasurys. Comment!
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3:18 PM Taking questions after a speech, the usually hawkish Minneapolis Fed chief Kocherlakota says a fall off the so-called fiscal cliff would argue for additional QE. The "fiscal cliff" refers to the 2013 expiration of tax cuts and other benefits that some argue could throw the U.S. into recession. 12 Comments
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3:07 PM Mostly a compendium of conventional wisdom, Freddie Mac's May Economic Outlook contains some interesting data about the refinance boom. One in three borrowers took advantage of low rates to reduce the term of their loan from 30 years to either 20 or 15. Four out of five either paid down their balance or kept it roughly the same. A full 95% chose a fixed rate loan. 1 Comment
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1:17 PM Treasurys trim strong gains slightly after a so-so five-year note auction; the 30-year yield now -0.07 to 2.79%; 10-year -0.05 to 1.72%; five-year -0.02 to 0.734%. Comment!
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1:04 PM The Treasury sells $35B in five-year notes at 0.748%. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.99, vs. a recent average of 3.0; indirect bidders take 42.6%, vs. a recent 43.7%. Direct bidders take 6.5%, vs. a recent 12.2%. 2 Comments
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10:51 AM The American Trucking Association's seasonally adjusted Truck Tonnage Index fell 1.1% in April after increasing a revised 0.6% in March. April’s decrease "matches with an economy that is likely to grow slightly slower in the second quarter than in the first quarter," ATA chief economist Bob Costello says. Comment!
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10:24 AM The XHB pops, but then drops on the better-than-expected new home sales print. Obviously, the overall market is struggling, but also of interest was the earlier MBA Mortgage Application report. The reported gain was nearly all from refinance activity, while purchase activity remains flat. XHB -0.8%. Comment!
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10:06 AM April New Home Sales: +3.3% to 343K vs. 335K expected, 328K (revised) prior. Median prices +0.7% to $235,700. Comment!
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8:12 AM The Gallup Economic Confidence Index rises to -16, the highest-ever level in the 4+ year history of the survey. The index has two components - current conditions and economic outlook, and the economic outlook - though still negative - is the highest since January 2008 despite a brutal few weeks for the stock averages. 1 Comment
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8:07 AM More on Toll Brothers (TOL) FQ2: swings to a net profit of $16.9M from a loss of $20.8M last year, helped by lower inventory writedowns. Homes delivered +14% to 671, net signed contracts +47%, cancellation rate falls to 2.4% from 3.9%. "It appears that the housing market has moved into a new and stronger phase of recovery," CEO Douglas Yearley says. Comment!
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7:05 AM MBA Mortgage Applications: +3.8% vs. +9.2% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.93% from 3.96%. 1 Comment
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6:31 AM U.S. stock futures point lower after European markets drop off ahead of a summit meeting of leaders in Brussels. S&P -0.7%, Dow -0.7%. Comment!
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