NTT DoCoMo Inc. (DCM)

All Comments on DCM

  • commenter
    David Lentz
    Jul 30 06:30 PM
    Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
    Al -- "Do what works until it doesn't "

    Excellent advice. I submit that when nothing works, the bottom will have been achieved.     Reply
  • commenter
    David Lentz
    Jul 30 06:27 PM
    Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
    Maybe oil prices coming down will boost things, but I tend to think that oil prices are coming down in large part because the demand is crumbling along with the economy. That, and the futures scam is getting a few beams of light thrown at it (it IS an election year), and the perps are probably taking the money and running.

    Housing is not "old news", but rather "continuing news", and until we see if the much-ballyhoo'd bailout bill actually does prevent further foreclosures, and until we see some glimmer of a sign that the ginormous overhang of unsold houses is beginning to decline (instead of continuing to rise as it is), housing will continue to eviscerate the financials. I simply don't see any way that the rest of the economy can flourish without a financial industry to fund it.

    As for the dot-com chart, when I look at the NASDAQ chart over the past decade, I see it peaking at a snerd above 5000 late in the first quarter 2000, and bottoming out around somewhere around 1200 early in the forth quarter of CY 2002. Yes, there was a rally (dead cat bounce?) in mid-2000, but the overall course of the decline seems pretty clear to me, a 75% fall from the peaks.

    Now for sure, the NASDAQ was the worst hit in that situation -- the NASDAQ was all about dot-com back then. The Dow did not get overheated and did not rise nearly so high nor fall nearly so far. But looking at the chart for the DJIA, it also peaked early in 2000, and bottomed late in 2002, at a bit over 7000 (let's say 7300, it's not worth being precise about it). That's about a 4400-point drop from top to bottom, or 37.6%

    So far the current market declines look like 22% for the Dow and 22% for the NASDAQ.

    While there is quite a bit of difference between 37% and 75%, I submit that these differences are due to the differences with how these indices are aligned to the elements of the economy that drove that particular boom. Our current boom seems much more closely aligned to the Dow (financials) than the NASDAQ, so I would expect to see the Down decline by something closer to 75% than 37% this time around. That's why I think we have a ways to go. I expect that the NASDAQ will ultimately drop at least 30% in the current decline, after this Christmas season when spending dries up for consumer electronics (no money, no credit = less spending).

    We have yet to see the debt that was pushed up into credit cards implode, but that's probably coming. And doubtless Uncle Ben will bail out the credit card companies, leaving the credit card holders severely wounded, in a repeat of the housing debacle, a refrain with a different verse.

    So who drives a consumption-driven economy when the consumers have had their homes repossessed and credit cards cancelled? And what does it take to make the consumers well again? I doubt that any number of tax refunds will do the trick. It's going to take time to heal these wounds. Years, not months.

    The next quarter's earnings will tell the story, resolving these minor quibbles I have about whether the worst is behind us.

    I am confident that your strategy of hedged trades will serve you well, whether the bottom lies behind us or ahead of us. Best of luck.     Reply
  • commenter
    Philip Davis
    Jul 30 04:31 PM
    My Website
    Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
    David - I'm surprised and pleased that we had this rally even after oil jumped up. My bullish premise hinges on oil prices coming down. Housing is old news and I think priced in as are the bank woes (Federal aid and all). I'm not saying we're in great shape, just that we're not in Dow 11,000 shape.

    Will you begrudge me 13,000 - while we may have some misfunctioning segments, earnings on the whole are chugging along. I think we did have our "fear drenched" sell off as the Dow just dropped from 13,200 to 10,800. Just because it didn't happen in one day, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

    I just wrote up something last week, I think on one of my evening posts that are free over at my site, comparing the current decline to the .com burst and this is actually worse. We just fell from 14,200 to 11,000 (22%) in 9 months while the Dow fell from 11,700 to 9,800 (16%) from Jan - Feb 2000 (about the same as our recent 2,000 point dip) and didn't really make a new leg down until March 2001, which quickly reversed and then 9/11, which is hard to use as a benchmark, cost us about 2,200 points but that was all the way into Oct 2001 - 21 months to lose 4,000 points and we dropped 3,200 in half that time. I consider that panic.

    I've been saying since my 12/31 predictions for the year that Q2 earnings would begin the recovery so not so short a timeframe as you may think. I don't try to be a market cheerleader - I was Mr. Doom and Gloom last year when I thought 14,000 was ridiculous but if I get a sense that the members are too bearish, then I do tend to accentuate the positive and vs. vs.

    You're right Al, same old, same old but it's fun to play when you catch the right waves...



    Reply
  • commenter
    Al Rob
    Jul 30 02:49 PM
    Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
    David

    Remember in March they pumped financials and comsumer names first. Then held financials and consumer discretionary flat for several weeks while they pumped energy, materials, and tech to put the broad idices up higher.

    Do what works until it doesn't
    Reply
  • commenter
    David Lentz
    Jul 30 10:29 AM
    Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
    Phil, much as I appreciate your longing and expectation for a run back up to the highs ... can you honestly see this happening with housing continuing to head lower, with the financial industry completely and utterly dependent upon handouts from the Fed (and ultimately you and me)?

    And where was the fear-drenched sell-off? Have the circuit breakers in the markets tripped even once?

    Seems like the (so far) quite mild decline can only be a step lower, as continued housing declines, a year's inventory of unsold homes weighing on the markets, and a likely doubling of the national debt (with the attendant dollar destruction) are going to act as pretty weight albatrosses hanging around our necks.

    If we look back at historical declines, the dot-com collapse was far more severe, despite the premise for it being far milder than our current straits.

    Perhaps you mean that we should expect a spirited rise, possibly approaching the previous highs, but only in preparation to dash investors on the rocks below with even steeper plunges to greater depths.

    Is that kinda what you mean to say, with all this happy-talk? Or is this all merely a difference in time horizons, with you, the day-trading options whiz, looking no further ahead than a week at most, and me with a bit longer time horizon?     Reply
  • commenter
    morgan77
    Jul 24 12:55 PM
    Chinese Tech Stock Weekly Summary (7/7 - 7/13) [view article]
    Some support from James RevShark DePorre for NCTY today- He choose this as a stock pick for the current market
    You can listen to the podcast here: www.greenfaucet.com/sh...     Reply
  • commenter
    Stockaccumul
    ator
    Jul 17 01:29 PM
    Chinese Tech Stock Weekly Summary (7/7 - 7/13) [view article]
    Also on the above article, the stock to buy and hold is Nokia... it is very low, and will rise, getting constant foothold in China... news seems to be every week about Nokia's growing foothold in asia... Reply
  • commenter
    mark mchugh
    Jul 06 10:31 PM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    More and more I find Barron's only to be useful in the smallest room in my house. Reply
  • commenter
    melante
    Jun 30 09:16 PM
    My Website
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    Sure guys, you'd all run to buy GM, that's a bargain of a lifetime!! Reply
  • commenter
    Toni
    Jun 30 12:48 PM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    Egg said it all. First post.
     Reply
  • commenter
    iago
    Jun 30 12:13 PM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    Tero might be knowledgeable about Nokia. But his views over the past few years (see old thestreet.com transcripts) on Nokia are hardly objective, and historically overly celebratory of anything they do.. Reply
  • commenter
    carlivar
    Jun 30 10:05 AM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    Hmm iPhone or some crappy Nokia phone? That's almost a rhetorical question. Reply
  • commenter
    kotika98
    Jun 30 08:44 AM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    > Strong iPhone sales will only further entrench 3G, driving Nokia's sales higher.

    I guess, this is a "what doesnt kill you will make you stronger" kind of argument for nokia, haha...     Reply
  • commenter
    buyitcheap
    Jun 30 07:32 AM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    The handset business is lousy - NOK is just a Europroxy for MOT. Better play seems to be the transport guys - who biggest players in the BRIC countries? is international/global telecom better played via a fund or ETF (i.e. DGG)? Thoughts welcome - Happy 4th of July to all. Reply
  • commenter
    wallawallabi
    ngbang
    Jun 30 06:21 AM
    Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's [view article]
    Nokia is the MiSFiT of handset stocks. No dramatic growth prospects. The market is theirs to LOSE. Dumped it.

    p.s. Isn't Mark Veverka the shameless hitman who started the bullcrap about Jobs' health?     Reply

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