Nova Law

Crystallex on the Regulator’s Radar

Cara continues to tout KRY. How far lower does it have to drop before he admits his error?

Fear as a Bull Market Catalyst

Fear and greed are the two lodestars by which the market trades.

Crystallex on the Regulator’s Radar

The post is a showcase of Cara's dishonest posting style.

Cara claims that there was only "one reason" he recommended KRY as a buy, namely, ex-CEO Todd Bruce.

Go back to Cara's January 3 post wherein he anointed KRY as his "2007 Stock of the Year":

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

Notice anything? What I noticed was that there was ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION by Cara of CEO Todd Bruce. Certainly nothing to support his claim that Todd Bruce was the only reason why the company is worth buying.

Jump forward a bit to when Todd Bruce was fired by KRY's board. Did Cara tell you to drop the stock, since his "only reason" to own the company was now unemployed? No - just the opposite. He took Bruce's firing as a reason to again tout the stock as being "in play" as a takeover candidate. Here's the proof:

On February 1, Cara opined: "A big piece of news for this Board is that Crystallex has replaced Todd Bruce with Gord Thompson as CEO, and the company says they are close to getting the environmental permit. If the latter is the case, then my friend Todd is leaving for one reason; this company is going to be in play as majors Gold Fields, Barrick, Goldcorp and IAMGOLD will be throwing their acquisitor's hat into the ring. Stay tuned with KRY."

www.billcara.com/archi...

Cara's final dishonesty in this post comes from the fact that he castigates KRY's current management in this post for being up to "old tricks" for "misleading people" as to the status of their long-sought-after environmental permit. Yet he totally ignores the fact that his friend Todd Bruce has a long history of making exactly the same kinds of misleading claims about the permit. Here are at least three different times when Todd Bruce claimed the granting of the permit was imminent:

www.twst.com/ceos/AEF6...
gold.seekingalpha.com/...
www.prnewswire.com/cgi...;STORY=/www/story/07-2...

Cara is legendary in making excuses and bogus claims, such as these discussed here. He should apologize for misleading people into buying KRY and losing them a quarter of their money since January 3.

Is America Headed for a Depression?

dfilion, Cara has done nothing to me apart from sending me some insulting emails. I'm a big boy, and realize that if I kick a pig in the right place, it'll squeal.

The real point is that I believe that he represents a fundamental danger to people: with his pushing of near-penny stocks like Crystallex (down a quarter since he started pumping it two months ago), his constant wrong calls on individual equities and the market in general (which I scrupulously document in my posts), and his constant stream of conspiracy theory explanations for market events. His documented record of wrong calls has cost real people real money.

I'm perfectly willing to debate facts and issues with you or anybody else. But I will insist we use actual data, not throw around invective as you do in your post. You may prefer Cara's opinions over my facts - by all means, I encourage you to invest your money according to his recommendations. I think a few months of that kind of schooling will bring you around to my line of thinking better than anything I might say about his documented record of wrong calls.

Is America Headed for a Depression?

Gee, this song sounds similar - oh, yes - back in 2005 Bill Cara triumphantly predicted an imminent recession in the US:

www.billcara.com/archi...

And back in early 2006, he again suggested the US was slipping into recession:

www.billcara.com/archi...

And what does Cara predict for 2007? A recession! Surprise, surprise, surprise!

Eventually, his constant "The Sky is Falling" refrain will turn out to be somewhat correct. It will not be because he knows what he's talking about, just that if he keeps predicting a recession, eventually one will happen.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Here's something new - Crystallex's auditors have resigned. Such resignations are very often a sign of malfeasance on the part of the company. Not surprisingly, Cara gives no good reason why Deloitte & Touche refused to audit this company's books anymore. None of the possible answers are positive for the company, but Cara nevertheless reiterates his buy recommendation. KRY's shares are now down to 2.75, for a total loss of over 25% since Cara anointed KRY his "Stock of the Year 2007."

With a "Stock of the Year" like KRY, I wonder what the "Bill Cara Stock of the Year 2001" was, Enron? Worldcom?

www.billcara.com/archi...

For all you people wanting to go long on KRY, don't buy yet - you will get a chance to buy at lower prices before KRY ultimately goes to its real value, which is probably zero.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Hello solo,

On January 3, 2007, Cara strongly recommended shares in Crystallex, which trades on the AMEX as KRY, opining that it was going to US$10:

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

According to the chart on quote.yahoo.com, KRY closed January 3 at US$3.68. As of my last comment, on March 1, it closed at US$2.99. As of 2:45ET on this date, it's trading at 2.85. So the loss on Cara's recommendation right now is over 22%.

While you may know "that KRY is a highly speculative buy and can fluctuate wildly on any given day," I submit to you that most people don't, and that most people can't tolerate losing nearly a quarter of their investment in two months.

PBOC Raised Reserve Ratio

Nova Law says that this post by Cara says nothing and doesn't deserve a comment. Personally, I'd be more interested in Cara explaining why Crystallex, his "Stock of the Year 2007," has gone from 3.68 when he recommended it to everybody on Jan. 3 to 2.70 yesterday. People who followed his advice have lost 27% of their money. Now THAT'S worthy of comment.

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Cara said in this post that gold was poised for a breakout to the upside on February 26th.

In fact, gold topped on that day, and has been going straight down ever since.

How utterly amusing - Cara keeps his .000 batting average perfect.

And Neville, sorry you didn't take me up on my bet, I was counting on using your $100 to buy myself a nice lunch at the end of the quarter.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Actually, the only thing new is that if you followed Cara's advice and bought KRY on January 3 when he recommended loading up on it, is that you would have lost 18% of your money (based on the current price of 3.00 per share). This was yet another terrible recommendation from Cara - and reading his comments today, one gets the impression that he's running away from his "Stock of the Year 2007." And as usual, no disclosure of whether or not he has a position.

Cara's buy recommendation at 3.68 can be found here:

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

I hit the "add comment" button too quick. I should have written, "I will bet you $100 that the Fed does not drop the discount rate before the end of the first quarter, as Mr. Cara predicted. Do we have a deal?"

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Neville, I could certainly be wrong on this one. Unlike Mr. Cara I freely acknowledge my mistakes. I'll make a wager with you if you wish. I bet you $100 that the Fed does not drop the discount rate before the end of the first quarter, as Mr. Cara predicted.

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

"This chart is eye candy for the readers of this blog who read my opinion on Jan 3 that Gold was going to rocket from 600 to 750 in 90 days. One month to go, I think."

Bill, on January 3 you wrote:

"I believe that gold will zoom over $750 this quarter because I think the Fed will start to lower the Fed rate. To me, that means we are in the final act of the 2002-2006 Bull market.

Yes, I think 2007 will be referred to in history as a Bear market."

www.billcara.com/archi...

The Federal Reserve has not "started to lower the Fed [sic] rate," nor have they given any signs that they intend to. Your "prediction" in as much as it have proven partially correct, is nothing more than a lucky guess. You completely missed the causality. You've proven no more reliable than a drunk who predicted on January 3 that gold would go to $750 an ounce because this year he was promised an endless supply of Jack Daniels.

Why do you claim to have correctly foreseen this move when your reasoning is quite clearly incorrect? Most people want honesty out of their financial advisors, not lies. Get back to posting the truth and perhaps people will take you more seriously.

NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP

Indeed. I was yesterday re-reading Buffett's 2005 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. In his concluding paragraph I read him crediting his being born an American as one of the principal components of his success. It is nothing to be ashamed of, as neither is being born in the United Kingdom or even in Vietnam. Knowing and being proud of where you come from is an important component of success.

Faber's comment would be more impressive to me if he would adopt the tactic of Buffett - drawing only a 100K per year salary and donating the sum of his life's work to a charitable remainder trust. Without that, it sounds much like a rich guy feeling sorry for having so much money. But while he's free to feel like that, I draw the line at his attempt to reach into my pocket and to steal my money for the "benefit" of Vietnamese rice paddy farmers.

NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP

Where would you rather work, David? As an investment banker in Manhattan or as a pice paddy farmer in Vietnam? Because that's what Faber's foolish comment comes down to.